đŸ”— Share this article Can Scotland at last end their All Blacks hoodoo? New Zealand introduced three adjustments to the team that beat Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match. The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Strategic Decisions The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in 2022 Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there. In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.